Until that deal was proposed the incumbent Lord Mayor, Cr John Tate, had appeared almost certain to regain the position he has held for nine years. After all, at the 2004 election he garnered 53 per cent of the 80,000 or so votes cast, leaving his nearest rival, Labor's Marilyn Eade, a long way behind on 23 per cent.

Even allowing a modest drop in Cr Tate's support and an equally modest gain in support for Cr Eade, if all other things remained equal, Labor could probably not have bridged the gap.

Cr Buman may have changed all that.

A former running mate of Cr Tate, Cr Buman has been outspoken against his erstwhile team leader and has earned some public recognition as an opinionated councillor. At the state election he attracted about 8 per cent of the vote.

As things stand, if voters pay attention to the how-to-vote material likely to be distributed by the candidates at next month's local government election, it is not hard to imagine Cr Eade giving Cr Tate a run for his money. If she polls about 25 per cent and attracts a solid majority of preferences from the Greens (12 per cent at the 2004 election) and from Cr Buman (say 10 per cent, for argument's sake) she could end up with well over 40 per cent of the total vote.

If Cr Tate's support slips, and if he does not attract many additional preference votes from other candidates, then his position could be shaky.

Given that the remaining candidates are Cr Helene O'Neill (another disgruntled former running mate who is preferencing Cr Buman), Zane Alcorn (a socialist candidate who is preferencing the Greens) and Tony Brown (the hotel curfew candidate with little affinity for any members of the former council), it appears the stars are not aligning in Cr Tate's favour.